President Donald Trump’s capture of former Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro is unlikely to reduce U.S. drug deaths.
Global cocaine production reached an all-time high in 2025, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. While most cocaine comes from Colombia, Venezuela acts mainly as a transshipment point and does not produce cocaine or fentanyl. Both drugs remain leading causes of U.S. overdose deaths in 2024, per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Illicit production in Colombia jumped by 50% last year.
Dr. Jeffrey Singer, a senior health policy expert at the Cato Institute, said Maduro’s arrest is largely unrelated to cocaine trafficking. Federal prosecutors allege up to 250 tons of cocaine moved through Venezuela yearly under Maduro.
“Venezuela doesn’t produce cocaine, but it’s a transit point for cocaine because it’s right next door to Colombia,” Singer told The Center Square. “About 5% of Colombian cocaine makes its way through Venezuela and from Venezuela, it usually goes to Europe and western Africa.”
But not the U.S.
Most fentanyl and its precursors are manufactured in Asian countries, including China, according to Singer. Mexican cartels transport these chemicals into the U.S. as fentanyl, a powerful opioid and the leading cause of U.S. overdose deaths in 2024, based on the latest CDC data. In 2024, the CDC estimated 48,422 fentanyl overdose deaths, compared to 22,174 from cocaine. The CDC notes that many deaths involve multiple drugs.
Singer said Trump has talked at length about Venezuela’s oil. The president has said he plans to work with Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who was part of Maduro’s inner circle.
Going after fentanyl and other drugs is popular politically, but Trump has been critical of regime change and involvement in foreign wars. Trump also pardoned former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez in December. Hernandez was convicted of conspiring with drug traffickers and using his power to help move hundreds of tons of cocaine into the U.S.
Singer said cocaine and fentanyl may be a cover for other political moves.
“I can tell you that it has nothing to do with drugs,” he told The Center Square “Now, maybe using the drug thing resonates well with the general public.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the attack was a war on drug trafficking.
“We are at war against drug trafficking organizations – not a war against Venezuela,” Rubio told NBC’s “Meet the Press” over the weekend.
A new indictment unsealed in federal court in New York charges Maduro with narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine-importation conspiracy and weapons charges.
Maduro and his wife pleaded not guilty to those charges on Monday in New York. During the brief hearing, Madura said he is “still the president of Venezuela.”
